Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:00:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3c0…890b crypto 86 markets active 17d ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,563 (-7%) realized −$12,563 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%45W / 41L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,170per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$10,578
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$17,230
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 60 +1.2% -8.5% 55% 55% -15.8%
≤90d 60 +1.2% -8.5% 55% 55% -15.8%
all 86 -3.5% -12.7% 52% 52% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 52% -17.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 51% -25.7%
15% -28.7% 51% -32.9%
20% -35.7% 49% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$2,573) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,627 vs −$2,206 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12,563
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses45 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage98d
Avg bet$2,170
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $261 −$261 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $316 −$316 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $761 −$761 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $571 −$571 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $1,445 −$1,445 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $1,291 −$1,291 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $1,666 −$1,666 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $528 −$528 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $2,065 −$2,065 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $2,066 −$2,066 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $2,253 −$2,253 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $2,316 −$2,316 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $2,574 −$2,574 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $2,582 −$2,582 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $2,084 −$2,084 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $2,419 −$2,419 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $2,587 −$2,587 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $2,349 −$2,349 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $4,118 −$4,118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $5,146 −$5,146 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $206 −$200 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $8,425 −$8,250 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $17,804 −$16,638 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $9,007 +$4,260 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 09 $2,573 +$1,727 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $2,061 +$1,474 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $6,173 +$4,118 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $3,094 +$2,355 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $9,239 +$5,561 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $3,088 +$2,069 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $3,081 +$1,809 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $3,114 +$4,779 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $4,245 +$2,460 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $1,024 +$517 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $2,057 +$1,337 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 09 $1,888 +$1,448 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $1,031 −$1,031 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $3,092 +$2,273 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $1,034 +$926 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $782 +$1,177 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $2,069 +$1,895 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $1,033 +$856 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $2,084 +$2,972 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $255 +$97 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $2,065 −$2,065 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 09 $2,073 +$2,099 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $1,030 +$796 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 09 $4,485 +$3,633 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 09 $2,447 −$2,447 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $206 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $258 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $257 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $257 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1,885 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $660 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1,719 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $384 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $446 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $342 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1,012 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1,204 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1,260 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $885 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $418 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $770 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $268 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $12 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $895 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $638 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $617 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1,916 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $559 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1,476 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $499 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1,320 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $861 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $382 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $754 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 572 history records