Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:18:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd3bf…8b09
crypto · 12 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$3 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 2 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$6 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 94% +$3
other 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.7% -11.0% 80% 30% -5.1%
≤30d 10 -1.7% -11.0% 80% 30% -5.1%
≤90d 10 -1.7% -11.0% 80% 30% -5.1%
all 10 -1.7% -11.0% 80% 30% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 30% -5.1%
10% -19.6% 30% -14.1%
15% -27.3% 30% -22.4%
20% -34.5% 20% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.98 · official $3.98 (match) · 29 history records