Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:06:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd3ba…ce27
other · 60 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$9 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open −$32
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$182
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses23 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)49 / 60
History coverage518d
Avg bet$340
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 11 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? No 64¢ 64¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $34 $25 −$9 (-26%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026? No 51¢ 50¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-3%)
Natural Disaster in 2026? Yes 40¢ 22¢ $40 $22 −$18 (-44%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 89¢ 84¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 72¢ 66¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-8%)
Will Brazil be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? No 24¢ 20¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-17%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? No 32¢ 26¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-20%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21? No 50¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $32 −$1 -3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 20 $13 −$3 -22%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 20 $6 $0 -8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 20 $19 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? May 20 $33 −$1 -3%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31? May 20 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? May 20 $92 −$5 -5%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? May 20 $2 −$1 -23%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 20 $32 $0 -2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? May 20 $2 $0 +10%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? Mar 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Pierre-Yves Bournazel advance to the second round of the 2026 Par Mar 16 $93 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Mar 16 $95 $0 +0%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 20 $106 +$38 +36%
Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch? Feb 13 $28 +$2 +6%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 23 $119 −$12 -10%
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 18 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? Jan 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 13 $13 +$4 +33%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 13 $21 +$1 +2%
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? Jan 13 $40 +$2 +5%
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Dec 10 $62 +$32 +52%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 03 $15 +$1 +4%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21? Dec 03 $44 −$22 -50%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 16 $6,438 −$6 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 15 $6,655 −$7 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 15 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Sep 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Sep 20 $5 $0 +9%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will Google have the top AI model on June 30? Aug 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in May? Jun 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? Jun 30 $3 +$4 +144%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 30 $80 +$2 +2%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? May 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring? May 22 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? May 22 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 again by March 31? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Biden finish his term? Feb 23 $856 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 23 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? Feb 23 $30 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? Jan 12 $972 −$1 -0%
Will the Steelers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 12 $897 $0 +0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Jan 12 $984 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Burrow win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 12 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 38% +$40
crypto 34% −$33
sports 11% $0
politics 10% −$6
economics 5% −$1
world 2% −$23
tech 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $32 0m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 22m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $31 46m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 51¢ $26 57m
Will Brazil be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group St BUY Yes 65¢ $13 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $32 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $6 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 72¢ $14 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 32¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 89¢ $18 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 89¢ $18 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 90¢ $18 1h
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? SELL No 20¢ $10 24d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? SELL No 12¢ $6 24d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? BUY No 26¢ $13 24d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? BUY No 13¢ $6 24d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $8 24d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 24d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 24d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $11 24d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? SELL No 65¢ $32 24d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 24d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $9 24d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY No 66¢ $33 24d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $8 24d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $9 24d
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? SELL No 88¢ $87 24d
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? BUY No 92¢ $92 25d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.1% -12.4% 0% 0% -12.4%
≤30d 10 -6.5% -15.4% 10% 0% -14.0%
≤90d 13 -4.9% -14.0% 15% 0% -11.9%
all 49 -3.6% -12.8% 47% 14% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 14% -9.6%
10% -21.1% 12% -18.2%
15% -28.7% 8% -26.1%
20% -35.7% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.71 · official $181.71 (match) · 243 history records