Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:07:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd3b9…d379 crypto 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$844 (-47%) realized −$835 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$213
7 days−$213
14 days−$248
30 days−$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$534
sports 29% −$44
other 18% −$215
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 60% -44.8%
≤30d 6 -6.5% -15.4% 50% 50% -44.8%
≤90d 6 -6.5% -15.4% 50% 50% -44.8%
all 12 -27.2% -34.1% 33% 25% -53.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.1% 25% -53.9%
10% -40.4% 25% -58.4%
15% -46.2% 25% -62.4%
20% -51.4% 25% -66.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$116 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized−$835
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage128d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Over 57¢ 54¢ $152 $143 −$9 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $91 +$61 +67%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $175 −$175 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $96 +$79 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$2 +50%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $185 −$180 -97%
US military draft authorized in 2026? Jun 14 $90 −$35 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Feb 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Feb 14 $41 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Feb 14 $312 −$312 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 14? Feb 14 $559 −$179 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 14? Feb 14 $2 $0 -20%
Solana Up or Down on February 14? Feb 14 $3 −$1 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $154 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $91 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $175 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $175 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $96 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 14h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $185 26h
Brazil leading at halftime? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY 9¢ $51 2d
US military draft authorized in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $55 7d
US military draft authorized in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $90 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $43 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $12 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $300 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 14? SELL Up 100¢ $312 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 14? BUY Up 90¢ $211 127d
Ethereum Up or Down on February 14? SELL Down 16¢ $2 127d
Ethereum Up or Down on February 14? BUY Down 20¢ $2 127d
Solana Up or Down on February 14? SELL Down 5¢ $2 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 14? BUY Up 88¢ $38 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 14? SELL Down 14¢ $37 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 14? BUY Up 85¢ $30 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 14? SELL Down 11¢ $30 127d
Solana Up or Down on February 14? BUY Down 8¢ $3 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 14? BUY Down 52¢ $280 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.81 · official $142.81 (match) · 32 history records