Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:40:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3b8…5a0f other 201 markets active 6h ago coverage 91d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,617 (+4%) realized +$2,623 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate73%151W / 57L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$336per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days−$761
14 days−$832
30 days−$948
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$2,163
politics 12% +$543
weather 2% −$1,018
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -50.2% -54.9% 28% 11% -48.3%
≤30d 36 -29.4% -36.1% 36% 11% -24.4%
≤90d 202 -3.4% -12.6% 72% 18% -7.8%
all 208 -2.2% -11.5% 73% 19% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 19% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 12% -15.9%
15% -27.7% 5% -24.1%
20% -34.8% 3% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$50 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$2,623
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses151 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)208 / 201
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$336
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 54¢ $48 $42 −$6 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 10? Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 10? Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 10? Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 10? Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 10? Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 10? Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 10? Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 10? Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $48 +$4 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $123 +$8 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $45 −$21 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $96 +$7 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $120 +$41 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $144 +$31 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $93 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $260 −$6 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $710 −$705 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $34 −$11 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $97 +$8 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $144 −$35 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $297 −$35 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $123 −$21 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $142 +$12 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $143 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $289 −$21 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $421 −$38 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $166 −$4 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $363 −$2 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $432 +$66 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $498 +$37 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $153 −$18 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $80 +$6 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $323 +$41 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $193 −$128 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $412 −$61 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $45 +$4 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $383 −$30 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $166 +$57 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $192 +$40 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $249 −$85 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $402 +$62 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $549 −$34 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $1,178 −$179 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $91 +$6 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $652 +$50 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $168 +$20 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $585 −$205 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $187 +$53 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $514 +$31 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $48 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $52 8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $10 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $48 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $0 11h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $8 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $1 23h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $42 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $39 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $46 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $35 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $43 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $48 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $52 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $45 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $48 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $51 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $48 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $92 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $175 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $93 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $69 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $36 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $56 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? BUY No 31¢ $16 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.09 · official $42.09 (match) · 3500 history records