Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:31:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3b8…6983 weather 135 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$25 (+3%) realized +$33 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate55%63W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day35.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$5
14 days−$8
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$14
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -2.2% -11.5% 56% 18% -10.2%
≤30d 115 -3.8% -12.9% 55% 18% -10.6%
≤90d 115 -3.8% -12.9% 55% 18% -10.6%
all 115 -3.8% -12.9% 55% 18% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 18% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 8% -19.2%
15% -28.9% 2% -27.0%
20% -35.8% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$33
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses63 / 52
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions20
Markets (closed)115 / 135
History coverage21d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? Yes 32¢ 31¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Yes 28¢ 38¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? Yes 33¢ 29¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? Yes 24¢ 21¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? No 82¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? No 81¢ 87¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 16? No 68¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? No 82¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? No 78¢ 77¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 16? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? Yes 31¢ 6¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-80%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 16? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 15? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 15 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 15 $4 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 −$3 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 −$3 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 14 $28 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 14 $16 +$5 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 14 $18 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $14 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $12 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $34 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $22 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 13 $23 −$6 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $31 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $2 30m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 90¢ $1 39m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 40m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 43m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 89¢ $1 51m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 53m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 54m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 54m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 16? BUY No 68¢ $2 59m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? SELL Yes 35¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.49 · official $92.49 (match) · 739 history records