Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:55:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3b6…7a56 crypto 410 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate89%365W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day41.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -17.1% -25.0% 73% 46% -23.9%
≤30d 410 -2.3% -11.6% 89% 22% -11.6%
≤90d 410 -2.3% -11.6% 89% 22% -11.6%
all 410 -2.3% -11.6% 89% 22% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 22% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 0% -20.0%
15% -27.8% 0% -27.8%
20% -34.8% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses365 / 45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)410 / 410
History coverage10d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day41.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 410 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 8d
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 8d
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 825 history records