Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:52:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D3 0xd3b5…a2af crypto 17 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+6%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day32.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$42
crypto 41% $0
sports 17% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +4.1% -5.8% 59% 53% -6.9%
≤30d 17 +4.1% -5.8% 59% 53% -6.9%
≤90d 17 +4.1% -5.8% 59% 53% -6.9%
all 17 +4.1% -5.8% 59% 53% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 53% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 47% -15.8%
15% -23.0% 29% -24.0%
20% -30.6% 24% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day32.1
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 +$38 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +39%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $27 −$7 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$5 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +29%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $35 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records