Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:31:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3b4…79ce crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$13 (-5%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$127
crypto 28% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -22.6% -30.0% 38% 38% -63.0%
≤30d 16 -22.6% -30.0% 38% 38% -63.0%
≤90d 16 -22.6% -30.0% 38% 38% -63.0%
all 16 -22.6% -30.0% 38% 38% -63.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.0% 38% -63.0%
10% ← realistic here -36.7% 38% -66.6%
15% -42.8% 38% -69.8%
20% -48.4% 31% -72.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$19 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 +$26 +65%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $40 −$40 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 89¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records