Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:57:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3b3…6697 other 35 markets active 6d ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$43 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$681per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$25
other 16% +$24
culture 15% −$4
politics 5% −$36
tech 0% +$1
sports 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +193.6% +165.6% 50% 50% -5.9%
≤30d 13 +90.3% +72.1% 69% 23% -7.2%
≤90d 28 +39.2% +26.0% 50% 11% -9.5%
all 28 +39.2% +26.0% 50% 11% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.0% 11% -9.5%
10% +13.9% 7% -18.2%
15% +2.9% 7% -26.1%
20% -7.2% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$589) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late +84% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$43
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)28 / 35
History coverage54d
Avg bet$681
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 84¢ $50 $85 +$34 (+68%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $50 $16 −$34 (-68%)
Will SpaceX have the highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 92¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 91¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 83¢ 84¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +21%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$15 +1396%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +44%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 01 $8 $0 +2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May? May 29 $13 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $6 $0 +5%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30? May 23 $6 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 21 $5 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $50 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 08 $105 +$1 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 07 $17 −$7 -40%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 07 $11 −$4 -38%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 28 $101 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 18 $493 +$7 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 18 $3,215 +$27 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 18 $11,577 −$12 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 18 $1,816 −$2 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 18 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 18 $398 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 18 $2,544 −$3 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $1,509 −$2 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 18 $986 −$1 -0%
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026? Apr 18 $200 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 83¢ $3 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $5 6d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $5 6d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $5 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $7 6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $15 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 15d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May? SELL No 100¢ $13 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? SELL No 98¢ $5 27d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $8 27d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May? BUY No 98¢ $13 27d
Will SpaceX have the highest private market valuation on June 30? BUY Yes 93¢ $7 27d
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 27d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $9 27d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL No 80¢ $5 27d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 81¢ $5 27d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $9 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY No 98¢ $5 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 27d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30? BUY Yes 95¢ $6 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? BUY No 99¢ $105 41d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 41d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $9 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $7 58d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 59d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.74 · official $129.74 (match) · 154 history records