Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:46:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3b2…9f07 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% $0
other 31% $0
crypto 4% $0
politics 4% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -0.6% -10.1% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 12 -0.6% -10.1% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 37 -2.9% -12.2% 32% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -9.5%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage465d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $27 $0 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $55 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $55 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $13 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $27 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $2 $0 -9%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $9 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 09 $3 −$1 -37%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 09 $11 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May? May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? May 07 $11 +$1 +8%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $13 $0 -2%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 05 $1 $0 -6%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Apr 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Apr 04 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? Mar 26 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $31 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $31 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $28 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $28 16h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $28 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $27 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $18 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $10 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $28 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $4 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $24 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $28 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 97¢ $27 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 97¢ $21 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 97¢ $6 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $27 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $28 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $28 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $13 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $13 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $6 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $22 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $28 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $28 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 90¢ $27 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records