Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:49:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3b0…b5bc other 134 markets active 6d ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 131L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$8
politics 20% −$6
world 18% −$10
sports 13% −$4
economics 8% −$2
finance 7% −$2
crypto 6% −$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -11.0% -19.5% 0% 0% -15.9%
≤30d 11 -2.6% -11.9% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 98 -2.4% -11.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 133 -2.2% -11.5% 2% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage92d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 73¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 11 $9 −$2 -20%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $22 $0 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 04 $41 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $121 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 03 $40 $0 -0%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $27 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $30 $0 -1%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $22 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $40 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $112 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $3 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 11 $2 $0 -5%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin May 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $30 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 10 $1 $0 -5%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? May 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 09 $30 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 09 $1 $0 -35%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $80 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $2 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $31 $0 -2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $356 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $1 $0 -3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $236 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 25 $32 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $42 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $2 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $207 −$1 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $261 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $88 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $42 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $5 $0 -2%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $658 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 20 $84 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 19 $7 $0 -5%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $632 −$1 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $30 −$4 -12%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $207 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $2 $0 -5%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 14 $3 $0 -4%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $7 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 20¢ $9 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 50¢ $22 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 51¢ $22 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $0 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $2 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 12d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $0 12d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $1 12d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 12d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $0 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $2 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes $1 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 97¢ $39 13d
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $2 13d
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $15 13d
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $11 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 73¢ $21 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 73¢ $6 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 73¢ $0 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 73¢ $15 14d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 19¢ $6 14d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $24 14d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 14d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $12 14d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 14d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $21 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 24¢ $0 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.00 (match) · 1375 history records