Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:24:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D3 0xd3ae…ad59 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 391d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$24 (+2%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%21W / 27L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$6
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$21
other 24% +$5
culture 15% $0
sports 13% $0
finance 3% $0
politics 2% −$4
crypto 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -3.3% -12.5% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 16 +2.2% -7.6% 38% 12% -6.5%
≤90d 16 +2.2% -7.6% 38% 12% -6.5%
all 48 +0.3% -9.3% 44% 6% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 6% -8.0%
10% -18.0% 2% -16.8%
15% -25.9% 0% -24.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×3.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.23 per $1 lost it wins $4.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

391d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses21 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage391d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 97¢ 97¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $6 $0 -6%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $113 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $52 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $74 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $47 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $37 −$1 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $50 +$8 +16%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $49 +$16 +31%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 11 $222 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $9 +$1 +16%
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 8.5 Mar 09 $197 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $126 +$4 +3%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 07 $9 $0 -0%
Will Adam Scott win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 07 $4 $0 +7%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Dec 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $8 −$4 -45%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 27 $4 $0 -5%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 26 $8 $0 -1%
Will Evo Morales win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 21 $8 $0 +0%
Trump blames Biden for Iran-Israel escalation by Friday? Jun 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 20 $8 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 18 $8 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 13–20? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-1? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +8%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish second in the 2025 Drivers Champions Jun 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jun 07 $18 $0 -1%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 06 $20 $0 -1%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Jun 04 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $210 in May? May 29 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $55 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $5 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $51 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $56 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $31 20h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $25 20h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $57 22h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $52 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $12 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $11 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $29 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $7 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $41 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $47 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $34 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $34 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $58 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 69¢ $50 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.43 · official $55.43 (match) · 153 history records