Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:15:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3ad…b15e crypto 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%102W / 1L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day36.1pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$10
other 25% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 103 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 103 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 0% -8.8%
all 103 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 0% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 0% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$25 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses102 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage4d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day36.1
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $22 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$2 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $45 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $38 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $43 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$3 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $45 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $70 +$2 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $49 +$1 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $47 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $24 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $48 +$2 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $24 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 32m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $22 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $21 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $21 9h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 9h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 10h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 10h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $14 10h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $19 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $18 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $18 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 10h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $23 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 253 history records