Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:53:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3ac…82f1 other 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-0%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%17W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$20
14 days−$27
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$33
politics 24% −$12
sports 17% −$11
crypto 8% −$11
economics 7% −$3
culture 5% $0
finance 4% +$2
world 3% −$2
tech 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 66 -0.5% -9.9% 8% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 114 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 136 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 119
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage102d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 20 $46 −$1 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $112 −$1 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 20 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $252 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $108 −$1 -1%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $58 −$2 -3%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $487 −$1 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $130 −$1 -1%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $64 −$1 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $64 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $103 −$2 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $698 −$5 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $265 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $160 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $45 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $50 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $170 −$1 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $54 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $110 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $290 $0 -0%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $48 −$1 -3%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 10 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $137 −$2 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $49 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 04 $58 −$1 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 04 $54 $0 +1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $47 +$5 +10%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 03 $36 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $50 −$1 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $88 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $60 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $152 −$1 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $95 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 1h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 92¢ $46 2h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $46 10h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $60 10h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $60 14h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $58 15h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $59 23h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 23h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 32h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $53 32h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $54 38h
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $56 39h
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $58 44h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $46 45h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $46 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $54 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $54 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $54 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $54 2d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $63 2d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $64 3d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $64 3d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $64 3d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $61 3d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $61 3d
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $56 3d
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $29 3d
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $28 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.11 · official $51.11 (match) · 506 history records