Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:50:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3ac…63fa crypto 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$23 (-4%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate46%59W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$49
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 129 -4.4% -13.5% 46% 37% -20.9%
all 129 -4.4% -13.5% 46% 37% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 37% -20.9%
10% -21.8% 29% -28.4%
15% -29.3% 22% -35.4%
20% -36.3% 17% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses59 / 70
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage45d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 15 $13 −$12 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 15 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 12 $4 −$4 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 11 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 10 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 10 $16 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 10 $14 +$10 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 10 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 10 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 10 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 10 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 10 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 10 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 10 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 10 $6 +$5 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 10 $3 +$3 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 10 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 10 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 10 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 10 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 10 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 10 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 10 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 09 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 09 $18 −$15 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 09 $13 +$6 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 09 $6 −$3 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 09 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 08 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 08 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 08 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 08 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 08 $12 +$12 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $2 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.24 · official $25.24 (match) · 350 history records