Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:41:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D3 0xd3ab…dd3d crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 494d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%41W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$17
crypto 13% +$2
politics 3% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 52 +0.1% -9.4% 79% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

494d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses41 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage494d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? Jun 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 04 $69 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 01 $73 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Mar 03 $68 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 02 $72 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $500 in December? Jan 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 02 $69 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? Dec 02 $59 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $64 +$1 +2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? Oct 04 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? Sep 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? Sep 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will US leave NATO by June 30? Jul 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in May? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $5,385 −$16 -0%
Ethereum all time high in April? May 03 $3 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 03 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 03 $6 $0 +1%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? May 03 $12 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Na Kyung-won be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian E Apr 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Greens win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentar Apr 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 09 $50 $0 -1%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Kirill Kaprizov win the Hart Trophy? Mar 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in Rebounds? Mar 22 $65 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 22 $63 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 07 $23 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 by February 28 2025? 1 Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $78 1h
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 31d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? BUY No 100¢ $57 31d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $69 61d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $3 90d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $17 92d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $73 93d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $12 121d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $68 122d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 149d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $72 150d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $7 180d
Will BNB dip to $500 in December? BUY No 100¢ $24 180d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $62 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $24 210d
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? BUY No 100¢ $59 211d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $24 241d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $40 242d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $28 273d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? BUY No 100¢ $39 273d
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? BUY No 100¢ $10 301d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? BUY No 100¢ $28 301d
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? BUY No 100¢ $45 302d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $9 332d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 100¢ $19 332d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $60 333d
Will US leave NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $40 363d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 392d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? BUY No 100¢ $5 395d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.28 · official $78.28 (match) · 112 history records