Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:55:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd3a9…b7bd
world · 48 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$26 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$27 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage271d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 1 History 47 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 72¢ 80¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $52 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $55 −$3 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $98 +$3 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $75 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Jan 31 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $9 $0 +1%
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film) by KPop Dem Oct 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Oct 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Oct 18 $2 $0 -17%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 18 $2 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Oct 17 $18 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Oct 14 $5 $0 +2%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Oct 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025? Oct 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 13 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $24 +$1 +6%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $9 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 24 $9 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 24 $7 $0 -1%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 22 $8 $0 +4%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2025? Sep 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 18 $23 $0 -1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 51% +$3
politics 19% $0
other 9% −$30
sports 7% $0
crypto 7% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $44 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $43 3h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 8h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $47 12h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $7 12h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 71¢ $52 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $37 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $9 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $46 24h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $43 37h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $9 37h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $55 42h
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 72¢ $34 3d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 72¢ $2 4d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 72¢ $36 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $16 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $50 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $13 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $21 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $6 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.6% -10.1% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 12 -0.5% -10.0% 42% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 12 -0.5% -10.0% 42% 0% -9.0%
all 47 -2.4% -11.7% 40% 0% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -11.8%
10% -20.2% 0% -20.3%
15% -27.9% 0% -28.0%
20% -34.9% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.39 · official $0.00 (match) · 174 history records