Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:43:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd3a7…3362
politics · 50 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$2,654 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,221 · open +$13
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17,910
Realized+$2,221
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses16 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions35
Markets (closed)19 / 50
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3,199
Trades / day1350.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 35 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,168
7 days+$2,221
14 days+$2,221
30 days+$2,221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $2,610 $2,625 +$15 (+1%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 87¢ 88¢ $1,740 $1,750 +$10 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1,260 $1,253 −$8 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $1,160 $1,170 +$10 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $921 $922 +$1 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $882 $884 +$1 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 83¢ $830 $832 +$1 (+0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 83¢ 82¢ $830 $825 −$5 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $771 $774 +$2 (+0%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 78¢ $590 $586 −$4 (-1%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 56¢ 56¢ $560 $565 +$5 (+1%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 94¢ 94¢ $562 $561 −$0 (-0%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 52¢ 52¢ $520 $525 +$5 (+1%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 75¢ 76¢ $505 $509 +$3 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $490 $490 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 97¢ $481 $481 +$0 (+0%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 27¢ 28¢ $405 $413 +$7 (+2%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 81¢ 81¢ $405 $407 +$2 (+1%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 36¢ 34¢ $360 $345 −$15 (-4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $223 $225 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $197 $197 −$0 (-0%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 97¢ 97¢ $194 $194 +$0 (+0%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 95¢ $189 $189 +$0 (+0%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes 17¢ 18¢ $170 $175 +$5 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $79 +$5 +6%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $847 +$177 +21%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $210 +$5 +3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $22,776 +$946 +4%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $6,799 +$475 +7%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $829 −$14 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8,416 +$76 +1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,530 +$36 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3,460 +$20 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $5,039 +$27 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $5,678 −$19 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $2,765 +$89 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $5,355 +$17 +0%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $198 +$4 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,690 +$140 +8%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $120 $0 +0%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $40 +$162 +405%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $21 +$22 +105%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $6,314 +$53 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 56% +$1,738
politics 27% +$230
tech 12% +$114
crypto 5% $0
sports 1% +$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $137 1m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 2m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $50 2m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $60 3m
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 41¢ $1 6m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 47¢ $27 8m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $36 9m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 10m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 12m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $25 14m
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 41¢ $123 18m
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 59¢ $295 18m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $294 18m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 19m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 19m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 22m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 23m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $14 24m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 47¢ $57 26m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $95 26m
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 29m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 32m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 36m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $29 39m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 41m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 44m
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $33 48m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $237 48m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 47¢ $9 51m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +29.9% +17.5% 84% 16% -6.7%
≤30d 19 +29.9% +17.5% 84% 16% -6.7%
≤90d 19 +29.9% +17.5% 84% 16% -6.7%
all 19 +29.9% +17.5% 84% 16% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1350.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.5% 16% -6.7%
10% +6.3% 11% -15.7%
15% ← realistic here -4.0% 11% -23.8%
20% -13.4% 11% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,910.29 · official $17,910.56 (match) · 3500 history records