Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:05:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D3 0xd3a6…892c crypto 113 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$230 (-18%) realized −$276 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate35%39W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day112.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$276
14 days−$276
30 days−$276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$281
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -21.4% -28.9% 35% 25% -29.5%
≤30d 112 -21.4% -28.9% 35% 25% -29.5%
≤90d 112 -21.4% -28.9% 35% 25% -29.5%
all 112 -21.4% -28.9% 35% 25% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.9% 25% -29.5%
10% ← realistic here -35.7% 20% -36.3%
15% -41.9% 13% -42.4%
20% -47.6% 8% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$276
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses39 / 73
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage4d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day112.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 49¢ 88¢ $6 $10 +$5 (+80%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 53¢ 12¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-78%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$10 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $23 −$8 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$8 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$8 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $24 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$7 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $29 −$17 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $28 −$6 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $39 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$11 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$21 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$15 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$5 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$5 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.64 · official $11.63 (match) · 639 history records