Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3a5…0f18 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$90 (-19%) realized −$14 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$37
politics 41% −$78
crypto 11% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -30.3% -36.9% 50% 50% -17.0%
≤30d 2 -30.3% -36.9% 50% 50% -17.0%
≤90d 4 -21.5% -29.0% 25% 25% -16.7%
all 4 -21.5% -29.0% 25% 25% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 25% -16.7%
10% -35.8% 25% -24.7%
15% -42.0% 25% -32.0%
20% -47.7% 0% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$18 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage47d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $137 $63 −$75 (-54%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $96 +$38 +40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 07 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in May? May 04 $48 −$3 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $134 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $96 40h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $48 10d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 40d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 40d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 43d
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in May? SELL Yes 78¢ $2 43d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 43d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 43d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 43d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 43d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 44d
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in May? SELL No 23¢ $6 44d
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in May? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 44d
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in May? SELL Yes 75¢ $8 44d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.82 · official $191.82 (match) · 44 history records