Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:47:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3a5…ea5b crypto 283 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$26 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%140W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day87.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 282 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 48% -9.3%
≤30d 282 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 48% -9.3%
≤90d 282 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 48% -9.3%
all 282 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 48% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 48% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 44% -18.0%
15% -30.0% 41% -25.9%
20% -36.9% 37% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses140 / 142
Open positions1
Markets (closed)282 / 283
History coverage6d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day87.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 282 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 48¢ 14¢ $30 $9 −$21 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$34 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$30 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$12 +378%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$27 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$27 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$29 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$30 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$30 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$30 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $19 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $7 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $31 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.99 · official $19.53 · 682 history records