Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:59:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D3 0xd3a5…62ed other 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-0%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%11W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$22
politics 33% −$18
sports 9% +$6
tech 3% −$2
crypto 3% −$4
economics 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 106 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 138 +1.0% -8.6% 8% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 5% -9.6%
10% -17.4% 4% -18.3%
15% -25.3% 3% -26.2%
20% -32.7% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×7.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses11 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage130d
Avg bet$320
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $518 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $247 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $350 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $294 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 30 $47 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $298 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 26 $227 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $237 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 22 $288 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $284 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $222 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $919 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $236 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $283 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $220 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 12 $293 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 10 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $273 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $532 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $290 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $230 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $243 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $83 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $223 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $240 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $255 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 01 $293 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $244 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $457 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $240 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 30 $249 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $248 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 28 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 22 $211 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $287 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 21 $210 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 5d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $45 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $45 10d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 10d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 10d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 10d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 11d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 11d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 13d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 17d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 18d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 18d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $47 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $47 20d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $221 20d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $221 22d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $298 23d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $298 24d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $227 24d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $227 25d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $237 25d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $237 25d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $234 26d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $234 26d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $236 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 436 history records