Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:48:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3a3…361d world 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate34%34W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$2
politics 21% $0
other 19% −$3
sports 13% −$2
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% −$10
finance 2% +$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.3% -8.4% 67% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 32 +0.1% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 78 -1.3% -10.7% 27% 1% -9.6%
all 100 -2.1% -11.4% 34% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 1% -9.6%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses34 / 66
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage455d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $85 $85 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $199 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $77 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $78 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $85 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $77 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $76 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $66 +$6 +9%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $77 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $77 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $71 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $84 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $220 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $23 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $196 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $3 $0 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $159 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $33 −$2 -5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $72 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $131 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $50 −$2 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $160 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $168 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $75 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $82 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $145 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $72 +$2 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 21 $150 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $6 $0 +4%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $75 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $74 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $81 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $83 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $56 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $171 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $153 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $84 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $153 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $77 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $95 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $76 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $8 $0 -3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $230 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $77 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $74 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $85 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $1 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $77 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $27 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $51 25h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $50 31h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $5 32h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $45 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 38h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $31 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $44 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $59 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $18 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $32 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $46 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $78 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $69 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $8 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $77 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $24 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $53 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $56 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $83 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.82 · official $85.35 (match) · 410 history records