Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:24:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3a1…f5ca world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate59%19W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$1
other 18% −$11
politics 8% +$8
sports 4% $0
weather 3% $0
tech 3% +$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +16.2% +5.1% 33% 17% -9.3%
≤30d 13 +7.1% -3.1% 31% 8% -9.7%
≤90d 13 +7.1% -3.1% 31% 8% -9.7%
all 32 -1.1% -10.5% 59% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 6% -9.9%
10% -19.1% 6% -18.5%
15% -26.9% 6% -26.4%
20% -34.0% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses19 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage476d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $52 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $18 −$2 -14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $42 +$3 +6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $45 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $24 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $32 −$2 -7%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Jun 24 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2025 Memorial Tournament? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? May 05 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 03 $22 $0 +1%
Will Malik Beasley win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Apr 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Apr 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 12 $1 $0 +10%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 12 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Giants make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 05 $9 $0 -0%
Another Trump x Putin talk in March? Mar 29 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on March 23? Mar 24 $22 $0 +1%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Mar 22 $15 +$7 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $46 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $16 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $24 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $40 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $10 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $4 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 88¢ $16 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $5 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $38 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $16 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $28 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.36 · official $48.36 (match) · 126 history records