Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:15:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd399…3f46
other · 87 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$16,463 +40%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,346 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$10,763
Realized+$4,346
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions58
Markets (closed)29 / 87
Avg bet$470
Trades / day78.8
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit27%
Chart Positions 58 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days−$295
14 days+$213
30 days+$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3,109 $2,937 −$173 (-6%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $1,057 $1,096 +$39 (+4%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1,064 $1,070 +$6 (+1%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $562 $703 +$141 (+25%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $590 $609 +$18 (+3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $560 $565 +$5 (+1%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 57¢ $587 $556 −$31 (-5%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $500 $475 −$25 (-5%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 6¢ 8¢ $309 $424 +$115 (+37%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $180 $205 +$25 (+14%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $220 $205 −$15 (-7%)
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $190 $182 −$8 (-4%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $150 −$50 (-25%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $136 $146 +$10 (+7%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $123 $138 +$15 (+12%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? No 40¢ 40¢ $120 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $120 $105 −$15 (-12%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $80 $85 +$5 (+6%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 70¢ $73 $74 +$1 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 62¢ 62¢ $62 $62 +$0 (+1%)
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 62¢ $80 $62 −$18 (-22%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 53¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 50¢ 52¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 49¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ismaïla Sarr score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 47¢ 47¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $41 +$54 +132%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $39 +$18 +46%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $824 −$24 -3%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 09 $236 −$44 -19%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $6,497 −$332 -5%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 08 $245 −$5 -2%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 08 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 08 $336 +$8 +2%
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 08 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $745 +$33 +4%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $73 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $2,258 +$569 +25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $1,332 −$103 -8%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first rou May 30 $539 +$41 +8%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $752 −$74 -10%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 May 20 $488 −$26 -5%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 13 $120 +$15 +12%
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 202 May 11 $952 −$3 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 06 $2,227 +$57 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 06 $8 +$4 +43%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 05 $1,116 +$12 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 04 $590 +$4,066 +689%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 04 $6 +$1 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 03 $538 +$17 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 01 $730 +$64 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% +$4,100
politics 31% −$323
crypto 11% +$504
finance 6% +$97
world 2% −$24
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $73 0m
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $55 0m
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $0 4m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $80 18m
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $10 29m
Will Bruno Fernandes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $2 29m
Will Bruno Fernandes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $5 31m
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $5 31m
Will Ismaïla Sarr score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $47 36m
Will Alexander Isak score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $5 36m
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $2 37m
Will Marcel Sabitzer score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $40 39m
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $2 39m
Will Alexander Isak score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $1 42m
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $81 52m
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 26¢ $2 53m
Will Antoine Semenyo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 45¢ $16 2h
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $1 3h
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $10 3h
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $10 3h
Will Bukayo Saka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 34¢ $34 4h
Will Brahim Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 24¢ $24 4h
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $5 4h
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $25 4h
Will Folarin Balogun score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $36 5h
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $80 5h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $96 5h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $99 5h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +5.8% -4.3% 47% 20% -12.3%
≤30d 21 +5.2% -4.8% 48% 24% -8.8%
≤90d 29 +30.0% +17.6% 59% 28% +9.0%
all 29 +30.0% +17.6% 59% 28% +9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover78.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.6% 28% +9.0%
10% +6.4% 21% -1.4%
15% ← realistic here -3.9% 14% -10.9%
20% -13.3% 7% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,762.92 · official $10,768.16 (match) · 3500 history records