Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:18:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

Chart Positions 2 History 268 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$743
7 days−$743
14 days+$249
30 days−$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $6,742 $6,817 +$75 (+1%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 92¢ 94¢ $250 $254 +$4 (+2%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 52¢ 88¢ $132 $226 +$94 (+71%)
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025? No 51¢ $158 $0 −$158 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Yes 13¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Yes 68¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Yes 12¢ $240 $0 −$240 (-100%)
Will Trump cut Medicaid before July? Yes 26¢ $1,485 $0 −$1,485 (-100%)
Will Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for PA-03? Yes 39¢ $104 $0 −$104 (-100%)
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? No 60¢ $332 $0 −$332 (-100%)
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 between December and June? Yes 30¢ $216 $0 −$216 (-100%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Yes 49¢ $223 $0 −$223 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 59¢ $295 $0 −$295 (-100%)
Texans vs. Chiefs Chiefs 64¢ $320 $0 −$320 (-100%)
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before July? Yes 32¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 12 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jun 12 $332 −$260 -78%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 12 $216 −$187 -87%
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before July? Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $6,745 +$75 +1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,402 $0 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jun 02 $135 +$365 +270%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jun 02 $568 +$232 +41%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Jun 02 $1,680 +$320 +19%
Will Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for PA-03? May 18 $106 −$104 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $299 −$295 -99%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Jan 08 $180 +$20 +11%
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jan 08 $102 +$98 +96%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 08 $320 +$80 +25%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 08 $494 +$6 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Jan 08 $1,003 +$18 +2%
Texans vs. Chiefs Dec 02 $320 −$320 -100%
US government shutdown in 2025? Dec 02 $2,008 +$5,167 +257%
Will 3+ Trump cabinet picks fail to get appointed? Jul 23 $742 +$9,185 +1238%
Will Nancy Pelosi retire before July? Jul 23 $177 +$24 +14%
Will Tim Walz announce Senate run before July? Jul 23 $332 +$172 +52%
Will Mitch McConnell retire before July? Jul 23 $760 +$240 +32%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jun 26 $2,600 −$2,600 -100%
Which conference wins NBA Finals? Jun 26 $141 +$141 +100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference? Jun 26 $575 +$9,483 +1650%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $2,260 +$33,733 +1492%
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea in 2025? Jun 21 $231 +$77 +33%
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March? May 28 $6,798 +$5,426 +80%
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.4% on Februar May 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will CDU/CSU win more seats than SPD and Greens? May 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Will CDU/CSU, FDP, and Greens for the next German Government? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the CDU/CSU win more than 34% of the vote in the German election? May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? May 28 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? May 28 $1,435 −$348 -24%
Will the CDU/CSU win between 32% and 34% of the vote in the German ele May 28 $111 −$111 -100%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? May 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump announce withdrawal from Syria in first 100 days? May 28 $122 −$122 -100%
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? May 28 $4,081 +$1,192 +29%
Will Trump sanction Russia before March? May 28 $280 −$280 -100%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? May 28 $432 −$432 -100%
Will Trump recognize Somaliland in first 100 days? May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the CDU/CSU win between 30% and 32% of the vote in the German ele May 28 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the CDU/CSU win by 10-12%? May 28 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the AfD win less than 20% of the vote in the German election? May 28 $3,192 +$146 +5%
Trump negative approval before March? May 28 $3,840 −$3,388 -88%
Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election? May 28 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 28 $9,720 −$9,720 -100%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 28 $10,800 −$10,800 -100%
Government coalition formed within 100 days of German election? May 28 $830 +$137 +16%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 28 $6,938 +$7,393 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 59% +$66,670
politics 22% +$50,800
world 10% +$16,266
sports 6% +$41,207
crypto 2% −$4,061
tech 0% +$12,867
culture 0% −$284
economics 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6,745 9d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? BUY No 92¢ $251 25d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $134 25d
Will Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for PA-03? BUY Yes 39¢ $106 25d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 59¢ $299 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 84¢ $1,148 155d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 84¢ $52 155d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $568 155d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 84¢ $479 155d
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? BUY No 51¢ $102 192d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 90¢ $180 192d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 80¢ $320 192d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $494 192d
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $1,003 192d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 27¢ $135 192d
Texans vs. Chiefs BUY Chiefs 64¢ $320 192d
Will 3+ Trump cabinet picks fail to get appointed? SELL Yes 98¢ $9,062 354d
Will 3+ Trump cabinet picks fail to get appointed? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 354d
Pacers vs. Thunder BUY Pacers 13¢ $1,229 354d
Pacers vs. Thunder BUY Pacers 13¢ $188 354d
Pacers vs. Thunder BUY Pacers 13¢ $1,183 354d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 72¢ $84 355d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 72¢ $5 355d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 72¢ $5 355d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 72¢ $7 355d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 72¢ $5 355d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 72¢ $101 355d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 72¢ $1 355d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 72¢ $1 355d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 72¢ $100 355d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -95.6% -96.0% 0% 0% -94.9%
≤30d 10 -15.5% -23.6% 40% 30% -8.8%
≤90d 10 -15.5% -23.6% 40% 30% -8.8%
all 268 +49.0% +34.8% 60% 37% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +34.8% 37% +3.9%
10% ← realistic here +21.9% 31% -6.1%
15% +10.1% 23% -15.2%
20% -0.7% 21% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,296.68 · official $7,296.68 (match) · 3500 history records