Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:15:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd398…a865 other 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$106 (+1%) realized +$105 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate47%66W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day39.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$6
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 64% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 44 -5.4% -14.4% 36% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 140 +4.8% -5.2% 47% 10% -9.7%
all 140 +4.8% -5.2% 47% 10% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 10% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.2% 6% -18.4%
15% -22.5% 4% -26.3%
20% -30.1% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$105
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses66 / 74
Open positions3
Markets (closed)140 / 143
History coverage86d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day39.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 91¢ 95¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $40 −$2 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $188 −$7 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $195 +$20 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $109 −$17 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $126 +$5 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $140 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $90 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $121 +$7 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $57 −$6 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $78 −$4 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $97 −$3 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $27 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $8 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $79 −$3 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $58 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $54 −$9 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $52 −$14 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $56 −$9 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $16 −$2 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $31 −$7 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $15 −$8 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $21 −$7 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $255 −$14 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $294 −$3 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $102 −$8 -8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $129 −$3 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 24 $10 −$2 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 23 $47 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $249 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $134 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $41 −$2 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $97 −$3 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $73 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $187 +$10 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $58 −$2 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $116 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $84 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $83 −$2 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $49 −$7 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $28 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 4h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $21 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $22 13h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 13h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 13h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 13h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 13h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 13h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 13h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 13h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 14h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 14h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 14h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 15h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 18h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $20 19h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 19h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $20 20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 25h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $0 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $0 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.47 · official $28.47 (match) · 3392 history records