Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:39:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd397…5f62 sports 370 markets active 1h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$447 (+10%) realized +$485 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate39%139W / 215L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$25
14 days+$19
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$7
sports 19% +$172
other 17% +$217
politics 11% +$59
culture 4% −$3
tech 3% −$35
weather 3% +$15
crypto 2% +$3
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -46.1% -51.3% 25% 18% -7.7%
≤30d 98 -29.0% -35.8% 29% 21% -3.7%
≤90d 130 -25.8% -32.9% 32% 25% -5.2%
all 354 -5.2% -14.3% 39% 31% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 31% +0.6%
10% -22.5% 25% -9.1%
15% -30.0% 20% -17.9%
20% -36.8% 17% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$4 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$485
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses139 / 215
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)354 / 370
History coverage192d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 354 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 34¢ 36¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+4%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $28 $13 −$15 (-54%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 31¢ 31¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-30%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 39¢ 64¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+65%)
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+73%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Yes 2¢ 9¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+271%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-80%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 38¢ 6¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-84%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on June 15? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-88%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-99%)
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $207 +$20 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $48 −$44 -92%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $140 +$34 +25%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $18 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $100 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $124 +$5 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +294%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $44 +$17 +38%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $33 +$10 +30%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 13 $10 +$7 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $6 −$3 -46%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 12 $47 −$11 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 +$28 +207%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$18 +239%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $21 −$4 -17%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Jun Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $26 −$8 -33%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $30 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $133 +$28 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 10? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 57m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 32¢ $10 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $16 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 10h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $15 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $16 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $6 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 2¢ $2 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 2¢ $2 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $29 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 20¢ $4 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $2 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $9 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $1 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $1 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $1 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $1 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $10 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 17¢ $2 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 44¢ $22 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 44¢ $22 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $4 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 17¢ $2 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 17¢ $6 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 11h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 63¢ $55 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $0 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.63 · official $68.63 (match) · 2511 history records