Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd396…2870 other 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$121 (+0%) realized +$121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate20%28W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$882per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$868now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$22
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$283
politics 31% −$137
sports 10% +$530
economics 4% −$4
world 2% +$4
crypto 2% +$2
culture 2% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 79 -20.0% -27.7% 6% 1% -9.7%
all 138 -5.6% -14.6% 20% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 10% -9.4%
10% -22.7% 9% -18.1%
15% -30.2% 7% -26.0%
20% -37.0% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,231) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$11 · ×4.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$868
Realized+$121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses28 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage158d
Avg bet$882
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $869 $868 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,390 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,229 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,660 −$3 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,526 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $3,103 −$3 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,357 −$2 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $1,056 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,248 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $882 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,610 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,475 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,749 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,314 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $807 +$1 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,661 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,629 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $1,136 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,218 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,668 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,689 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $3,281 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $4,135 −$5 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $1,628 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,656 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $1,354 −$2 -0%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 30 $794 +$970 +122%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $3,608 −$4 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,635 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $849 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,930 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $2,911 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $996 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,086 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,053 −$1 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? Apr 02 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $1,447 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $2,484 −$3 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 28 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $2,402 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 26 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 25 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $1,059 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $869 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,604 3d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,607 3d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,227 3d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,229 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,657 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,660 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,524 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,526 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,386 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,387 6d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,356 6d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,357 6d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,055 9d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,056 9d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,247 9d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,248 10d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $880 10d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $882 10d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,607 11d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,610 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,347 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,349 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $757 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $759 14d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,196 14d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,198 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $809 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $810 15d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $747 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $868.29 · official $868.29 (match) · 485 history records