Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:44:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd390…a1c7
weather · 191 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$41
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses116 / 41
Open positions34
Markets (closed)157 / 191
History coverage36d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 34 History 157 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? No 82¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? No 84¢ 88¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? No 93¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? No 67¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? No 78¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? No 83¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 12? No 83¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? No 83¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? No 81¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 12? No 88¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? No 88¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? No 85¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? No 79¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? No 89¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? No 90¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? No 86¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? No 86¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June 14? No 90¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? No 62¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? No 80¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 90¢ 89¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? No 90¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? No 78¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $1 $0 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 46¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 43¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 86¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June BUY No 90¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 84¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 87¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL No 2¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 81¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? SELL No 5¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 83¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL No 62¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 87¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY No 88¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? SELL No 42¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 89¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $4 16h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? SELL No 10¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -1.6% -11.0% 71% 60% -9.0%
≤30d 130 -0.2% -9.7% 75% 46% -9.2%
≤90d 157 -0.7% -10.2% 74% 40% -9.8%
all 157 -0.7% -10.2% 74% 40% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 40% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 17% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 4% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.51 · official $40.51 (match) · 366 history records