Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd390…6258 crypto 354 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,365 (-18%) realized −$1,365 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate39%137W / 217L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$144
7 days−$341
14 days−$540
30 days−$538
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$656
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 189 -18.3% -26.0% 39% 21% -16.6%
≤30d 300 -17.4% -25.3% 40% 23% -16.4%
≤90d 354 -18.8% -26.5% 39% 23% -17.5%
all 354 -18.8% -26.5% 39% 23% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.5% 23% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -33.5% 15% -25.4%
15% -40.0% 11% -32.6%
20% -45.8% 7% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,365
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses137 / 217
Open positions0
Markets (closed)354 / 354
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 354 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$22 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$33 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $56 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$19 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $78 −$20 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $87 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$19 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$8 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $38 −$14 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $43 −$14 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$17 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $83 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $33 −$13 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $48 +$26 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $45 −$25 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$5 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $22 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $50 −$30 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$3 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $7 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $8 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $7 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records