Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:39:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd390…89ae
world · 40 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$12 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$26
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses2 / 27
Open positions12
Markets (closed)29 / 40
History coverage14d
Avg bet$270
Trades / day249.6
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 12 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 73¢ 77¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 95¢ 95¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 13 $0 −$1 -220%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 13 $68 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 12 $30 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $27 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $68 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the mos Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $1,966 +$6 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $137 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $6 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $6 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 06 $87 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $7 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Jun 02 $7 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $7 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $200 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $15 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 71% +$5
politics 24% $0
other 5% $0
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 5m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $5 5m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 12m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 12m
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 19m
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $5 19m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 32m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 32m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $5 42m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $5 42m
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 54m
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 54m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $5 2h
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $5 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -4.6% -13.7% 9% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 29 -7.1% -16.0% 7% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 29 -7.1% -16.0% 7% 0% -9.4%
all 29 -7.1% -16.0% 7% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover249.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -31.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -38.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.97 · official $23.59 · 3500 history records