Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd390…632c crypto 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$62 (-15%) realized −$61 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%43W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$38
14 days−$37
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$12
sports 11% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -1.2% -10.6% 51% 46% -23.3%
≤30d 84 -5.9% -14.9% 51% 48% -21.6%
≤90d 84 -5.9% -14.9% 51% 48% -21.6%
all 84 -5.9% -14.9% 51% 48% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 48% -21.6%
10% -23.0% 44% -29.1%
15% -30.4% 44% -36.0%
20% -37.3% 38% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$61
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses43 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage19d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Up 11¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$8 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$5 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$11 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$12 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -94%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $43 −$42 -98%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$1 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 29 $3 +$2 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 29 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 29 $3 +$4 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 29 $3 +$3 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $17 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $8 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $7 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $7 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.14 (match) · 162 history records