Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:02:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D3 0xd38d…ad3e crypto 1222 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$494 (+2%) realized +$494 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate78%959W / 269L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day60.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$101
14 days+$16
30 days+$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$219
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 174 +9.8% -0.7% 79% 79% -7.3%
≤30d 625 +4.2% -5.7% 80% 80% -8.3%
≤90d 1228 +2.1% -7.6% 78% 78% -8.8%
all 1228 +2.1% -7.6% 78% 78% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 78% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 9% -17.5%
15% -24.5% 2% -25.5%
20% -31.9% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$494
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses959 / 269
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1228 / 1222
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day60.3
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1228 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$6 -197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 29 $34 +$6 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 29 $35 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 29 $35 +$5 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 29 $34 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$4 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 29 $8 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 29 $49 −$14 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 29 $51 −$17 -33%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$13 -50%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $22 −$9 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 28 $23 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 28 $25 −$13 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 28 $22 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $22 +$7 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$4 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 28 $24 −$11 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $22 +$8 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$11 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 28 $23 −$14 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 28 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$18 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 27 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $24 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$5 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $34 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $8 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $13 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $15 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $26 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records