Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:27:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd388…7ed9 sports 353 markets active 1h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$651 (-7%) realized −$837 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate58%192W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$122est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$164
14 days−$356
30 days−$780
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$928
other 9% +$35
politics 1% +$40
weather 1% +$9
finance 1% −$10
world 1% $0
tech 1% +$8
crypto 0% −$5
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +21.5% +9.9% 67% 67% -73.9%
≤30d 163 -3.6% -12.8% 53% 44% -24.0%
≤90d 332 -0.7% -10.2% 58% 47% -19.7%
all 333 -0.5% -10.0% 58% 47% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 47% -19.1%
10% -18.6% 35% -26.9%
15% -26.5% 26% -33.9%
20% -33.7% 19% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$837
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses192 / 141
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions20
Markets (closed)333 / 353
History coverage589d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-46%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will STRC market cap hit $12B by June 30? Yes 69¢ 11¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-84%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $3 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +124%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $590 −$185 -31%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $15 +$7 +46%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $5 $0 -3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $358 −$8 -2%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $68 −$59 -87%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $10 +$5 +46%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $5 +$4 +83%
Will AA Ponte Preta vs. Botafogo FC end in a draw? Jun 02 $5 +$8 +165%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta Jun 01 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $10 +$2 +20%
EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5 May 31 $10 +$5 +50%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $10 +$2 +20%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $20 +$8 +42%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 29? May 30 $5 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on May 29? May 29 $10 +$2 +22%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $10 +$3 +27%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $10 +$3 +27%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on May 29? May 29 $10 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $10 +$56 +550%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $20 +$11 +55%
Dota 2: by Owl Club vs TPaBoMaH Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group May 27 $20 +$9 +46%
Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5) May 27 $20 +$8 +40%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $10 +$1 +5%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $203 +$10 +5%
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $10 +$1 +14%
Estudiantes de La Plata vs. Independiente Medellín: Both Teams to Scor May 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 50m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 50m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 51m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 52m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 53m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 65¢ $5 10h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $5 10h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 27h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 10¢ $54 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.03 · official $88.04 (match) · 768 history records