Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:49:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D3 0xd385…dd8a other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$58 (+9%) realized +$70 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$38
14 days+$65
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 39% +$45
world 25% −$1
other 17% +$4
finance 9% +$9
politics 7% −$2
culture 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +11.4% +0.8% 58% 25% +3.2%
≤30d 16 +12.7% +1.9% 56% 31% +7.8%
≤90d 16 +12.7% +1.9% 56% 31% +7.8%
all 16 +12.7% +1.9% 56% 31% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 31% +7.8%
10% -7.8% 25% -2.5%
15% -16.7% 19% -11.9%
20% -24.9% 12% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×9.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.68 per $1 lost it wins $12.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized+$70
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Open positions12
Markets (closed)16 / 29
History coverage11d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on June 30, 2026? No 69¢ 86¢ $35 $43 +$9 (+25%)
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by June 30, 2027? Yes 54¢ 64¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+19%)
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Yes 64¢ 56¢ $32 $28 −$4 (-12%)
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 240m and 260m? Yes 35¢ 29¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-17%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Down 62¢ 52¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-15%)
Tom Holland as Spider-Man? No 45¢ 50¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+12%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 49¢ 14¢ $30 $9 −$21 (-70%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes 50¢ 42¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 25¢ 37¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+49%)
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? Yes 52¢ 57¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 15¢ 22¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 23 $34 +$12 +35%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Jun 22 $18 +$2 +9%
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Jun 21 $34 +$14 +41%
City Protocol FDV above $350M one day after launch? Jun 20 $4 $0 -5%
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
New COVID variant of concern before 2027? Jun 19 $4 $0 -5%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B? Jun 19 $22 −$1 -5%
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 19 $11 −$1 -8%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $38 +$3 +8%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 17 $14 +$9 +64%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Jun 16 $13 −$3 -21%
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? Jun 16 $13 +$2 +18%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 12 $38 +$27 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 BUY Yes 83¢ $40 1h
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL No 91¢ $35 2h
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 6h
Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $3 10h
Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by June 30, 2 BUY Yes 54¢ $25 11h
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $20 38h
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $35 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $41 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $8 2d
City Protocol FDV above $350M one day after launch? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $18 2d
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? SELL No 78¢ $0 3d
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL No 95¢ $10 3d
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? SELL No 78¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? SELL No 78¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? SELL No 78¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? SELL No 78¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? SELL No 78¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? SELL No 78¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? SELL No 78¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? SELL No 78¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? SELL No 78¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? SELL No 78¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? SELL No 78¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? SELL No 78¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? SELL No 78¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? SELL No 78¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? SELL No 78¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? SELL No 78¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? SELL No 78¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.74 · official $209.07 (match) · 96 history records