Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:53:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd384…61b9 crypto 383 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$650 (-2%) realized −$650 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate75%287W / 96L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,049
7 days−$1,050
14 days−$1,050
30 days−$1,050
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$347
other 18% −$866
sports 4% −$382
world 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -38.0% -43.9% 31% 31% -23.4%
≤30d 13 -38.0% -43.9% 31% 31% -23.4%
≤90d 84 -52.5% -57.0% 25% 23% -26.7%
all 383 -4.7% -13.8% 75% 26% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 26% -11.0%
10% -22.1% 17% -19.5%
15% -29.6% 14% -27.3%
20% -36.5% 9% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$55 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$650
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses287 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)383 / 383
History coverage123d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 383 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 −$75 -73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $734 −$717 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $991 −$258 -26%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $86 −$84 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $19 −$18 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 +$2 +48%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $1,815 −$1,791 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $197 +$263 +134%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,646 +$959 +58%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $966 +$886 +92%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Stray Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group May 21 $1 +$1 +49%
LoL: Misa Esports vs Ozarox Esports (BO5) - TCL Playoffs May 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $4 +$5 +128%
Valorant: AB3 Esports vs Tezcat Gaming (BO3) - VCL Latin America North May 20 $9 −$6 -68%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante May 19 $71 −$16 -23%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 19 $37 −$11 -30%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs ex-KRÜ Esports (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group S May 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vexa vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Serie May 15 $20 +$6 +27%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 15 $2 −$1 -49%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $111 +$1 +1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 15 $1 $0 +21%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 May 15 $73 +$7 +10%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves May 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 May 15 $10 −$5 -46%
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets May 14 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $56 −$2 -3%
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 3 - 0 Real Oviedo? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 14 $10 +$6 +55%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $39 +$12 +31%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $344 −$290 -84%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians May 13 $283 +$11 +4%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $199 +$88 +44%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 13 $113 +$86 +76%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5 May 13 $124 −$11 -9%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $128 −$3 -2%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 13 $25 +$6 +23%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 13 $14 +$11 +79%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 13 $16 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 14 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 14 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 13¢ $24 36m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $734 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 27¢ $734 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $991 47h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 21¢ $86 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 28¢ $19 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $769 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $449 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 93¢ $460 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $197 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $597 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 93¢ $2,605 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,646 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $966 4d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 36¢ $7 37d
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Stray Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group SELL Stray Team 57¢ $2 37d
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Stray Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group BUY Stray Team 37¢ $1 37d
LoL: Misa Esports vs Ozarox Esports (BO5) - TCL Playoffs BUY Ozarox Esports $1 37d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs SELL Team Falcons $0 37d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 15¢ $1 37d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs SELL PARIVISION 79¢ $9 37d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY PARIVISION 26¢ $3 37d
Valorant: AB3 Esports vs Tezcat Gaming (BO3) - VCL Latin America North SELL AB3 Esports $3 39d
Valorant: AB3 Esports vs Tezcat Gaming (BO3) - VCL Latin America North BUY AB3 Esports 17¢ $9 39d
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante BUY INTZ e-Sports 40¢ $20 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1115 history records