Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:55:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd381…21c9 world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%18W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$5
other 18% +$1
politics 13% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 18 -1.0% -10.4% 28% 6% -10.4%
≤90d 18 -1.0% -10.4% 28% 6% -10.4%
all 50 -0.8% -10.2% 36% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 2% -10.0%
10% -18.8% 2% -18.6%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses18 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage301d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $58 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $5 +$1 +32%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $38 −$5 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $12 $0 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $81 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -36%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $5 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $37 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $28 +$3 +9%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Dec 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 05 $7 $0 +1%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $18 −$1 -6%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Nov 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Sep 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in September? Sep 27 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-09-26? Sep 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $6 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 25 $11 $0 +1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 25 $5 $0 -6%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 16 $3 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 15 $1 $0 -21%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 15 $34 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Sep 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times August 22–August 29? Aug 29 $29 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Aug 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 US Open? Aug 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 26 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $26 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $7 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $33 14h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $32 8d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $32 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $33 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $32 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $8 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $17 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $6 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $0 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $4 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 25¢ $11 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 25¢ $9 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $12 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.44 · official $32.33 (match) · 180 history records