Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:59:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D3 0xd380…0700 crypto 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 186d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$7,650 (-37%) realized −$7,361 · open −$289
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate28%22W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,749now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 186d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$7,498
other 30% −$661
sports 8% +$4,816
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +91.6% +73.4% 20% 20% +132.6%
≤30d 20 +91.6% +73.4% 20% 20% +132.6%
≤90d 20 +91.6% +73.4% 20% 20% +132.6%
all 78 -10.6% -19.1% 28% 22% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 22% -27.6%
10% -26.8% 12% -34.5%
15% -33.9% 8% -40.8%
20% -40.4% 5% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +160% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$248 vs −$152 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$1,749
Realized−$7,361
Unrealized−$289
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses22 / 56
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 105
History coverage186d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,038 $1,749 −$289 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $564 +$3,744 +664%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06 Jun 21 $51 +$1,111 +2161%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $473 −$460 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $403 +$133 +33%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -89%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $20 −$16 -84%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -84%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$5 -9%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $51 −$5 -10%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$8 -15%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $51 −$8 -16%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$5 -10%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$5 -19%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $719 +$81 +11%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$24 -48%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 −$106 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 01 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 01 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 01 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 01 $83 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Mar 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 01 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Mar 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 01 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 01 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 01 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 01 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Feb 28 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Feb 28 $10 +$89 +891%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Feb 28 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Feb 28 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Feb 28 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Feb 28 $9 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Feb 28 $60 −$38 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Feb 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Feb 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Feb 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Feb 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $25 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 8h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $402 21h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 21h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $240 21h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $536 21h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 75¢ $151 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 71¢ $151 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18 BUY 9¢ $46 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 5¢ $46 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $47 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 17¢ $46 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? A BUY 1¢ $44 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $44 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,749.29 · official $1,749.29 (match) · 601 history records