Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:11:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D3 0xd37d…dd3d sports 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$199 (+47%) realized +$269 · open −$70
Gross ROI / mkt +118% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +97% what you keep after slip
Net edge+97%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%5W / 15L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$112
14 days+$24
30 days+$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$26
other 20% +$127
crypto 10% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+96.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +81.2% +64.0% 33% 33% +174.8%
≤30d 20 +117.6% +96.8% 25% 25% +54.3%
≤90d 20 +117.6% +96.8% 25% 25% +54.3%
all 20 +117.6% +96.8% 25% 25% +54.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +96.8% 25% +54.3%
10% +78.0% 25% +39.6%
15% +60.8% 25% +26.1%
20% +45.0% 25% +13.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +71% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +118% · $-wt +71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +226% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$15 · ×5.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$269
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses5 / 15
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)20 / 25
History coverage15d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance South Africa 33¢ 32¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 22¢ $50 $24 −$26 (-52%)
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? Yes $6 $2 −$4 (-71%)
Canada leading at halftime? Yes 38¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 23 $15 +$36 +238%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $8 −$7 -97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $15 +$100 +650%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Spain? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $17 −$16 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $5 +$23 +442%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $10 +$61 +596%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $60 −$59 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 +$198 +1926%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY South Africa 33¢ $31 18m
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes $6 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 22¢ $7 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 29¢ $15 5d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes $8 6d
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 7d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 13¢ $15 7d
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 7d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $20 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $3 7d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $17 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $26 10d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 22¢ $26 10d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $5 11d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 11d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes $5 11d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 14¢ $10 11d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $60 13d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026 BUY 14¢ $15 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 14d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.29 · official $56.88 · 31 history records