Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd376…7274 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$56 (-13%) realized −$58 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$2
sports 5% −$15
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +22.4% +10.7% 12% 12% -33.2%
≤30d 8 +22.4% +10.7% 12% 12% -33.2%
≤90d 8 +22.4% +10.7% 12% 12% -33.2%
all 8 +22.4% +10.7% 12% 12% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.7% 12% -33.2%
10% +0.1% 12% -39.6%
15% -9.5% 12% -45.4%
20% -18.4% 12% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$8 · ×4.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$313
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 14
History coverage6d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $5 +$40 +784%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$2 -41%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$7 -64%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $312.66 · official $362.38 · 17 history records