Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:30:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
D3 0xd374…66af politics 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$202 · open +$188
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$417now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% +$186
other 3% −$12
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -5.9% -14.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 7 -5.9% -14.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 7 -5.9% -14.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 10 -12.2% -20.6% 20% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 0% -10.9%
10% -28.2% 0% -19.4%
15% -35.1% 0% -27.2%
20% -41.5% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$417
Realized−$202
Unrealized+$188
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage236d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $229 $229 −$0 (-0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 0¢ 99¢ $0 $189 +$189 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -19%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $219 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -21%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $179 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Feb 11 $15 $0 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Feb 11 $15 −$13 -82%
USDT depeg in 2025? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 4h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 7h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 8h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 9h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 12h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 16h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 18h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 18h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 19h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 20h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 24h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 26h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 29h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 131d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 131d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $15 185d
USDT depeg in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $5 209d
USDT depeg in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $10 209d
USDT depeg in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $15 220d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 85¢ $15 235d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $417.08 · official $417.08 (match) · 28 history records