Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:13:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd372…b8d8 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%42W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$5
crypto 18% +$2
politics 5% $0
tech 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
sports 0% $0
world 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 55 -1.5% -10.9% 76% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses42 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage533d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 04 $41 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March? Apr 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,000 in February? Mar 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? Feb 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? Feb 02 $32 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $54 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? Nov 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? Nov 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? Oct 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $290 in August? Sep 02 $32 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 02 $46 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 03 $26 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30? May 02 $3 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.24 in April? May 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 02 $6 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 02 $11 $0 +0%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 15 $24 $0 -1%
Will another party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian E Apr 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will another party win the second most seats in the next Canadian elec Apr 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Kirill Kaprizov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 09 $29 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the Eastern Conference? Mar 19 $2,625 −$5 -0%
Dogecoin above $0.26 on February 28? Mar 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 04 $20 +$1 +5%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.39ºC in February 2025? Mar 03 $21 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Feb 22 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 24-31? Feb 20 $9 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 20 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $63 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 28d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $53 30d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $41 62d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March? BUY No 100¢ $21 93d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $45 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $9 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 99¢ $13 122d
Will BNB reach $1,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $45 123d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $9 151d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? BUY No 100¢ $30 151d
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $32 151d
XRP all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $8 180d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $9 181d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $52 181d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $54 211d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $21 241d
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? BUY No 100¢ $30 242d
Will Solana reach $350 in September? BUY No 100¢ $16 272d
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? BUY No 100¢ $43 273d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 100¢ $25 301d
Will Solana reach $290 in August? BUY No 100¢ $32 302d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $18 334d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 99¢ $46 335d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $26 364d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 394d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 394d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 395d
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? BUY No 62¢ $12 423d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.11 · official $63.11 (match) · 121 history records