Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:04:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd371…57c1 other 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%28W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$14
14 days−$22
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$13
other 28% −$32
sports 21% −$9
crypto 6% $0
world 5% −$2
economics 5% −$2
culture 4% −$13
finance 2% $0
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.6% -10.1% 22% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 65 -0.8% -10.2% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 116 -0.6% -10.1% 19% 0% -9.9%
all 136 -0.6% -10.0% 21% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses28 / 108
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage102d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 19 $54 +$3 +5%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $110 −$2 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 18 $260 −$3 -1%
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion Jun 18 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $60 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $157 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $103 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 17 $62 −$1 -1%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $109 −$1 -1%
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $59 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $45 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $93 −$2 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $88 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $86 −$1 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $156 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $56 $0 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $68 −$2 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $54 −$1 -3%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $181 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 10 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $157 $0 +0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $10 $0 -3%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 06 $62 −$1 -2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $55 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 05 $47 −$1 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 05 $48 $0 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $104 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $60 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper announce a Presidential run before 2027? Jun 03 $55 −$1 -3%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $45 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 02 $61 −$2 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $53 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $80 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $46 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 95¢ $56 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 90¢ $54 10h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $45 10h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 17h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $48 18h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $55 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $56 34h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $12 34h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $12 39h
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion SELL No 96¢ $54 40h
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY No 98¢ $55 44h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $51 44h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $52 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $55 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $13 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $62 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $62 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $44 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $45 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $54 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $54 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.31 · official $46.31 (match) · 499 history records