Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:15:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd36b…5942 crypto 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+1%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate76%81W / 26L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% +$14
crypto 5% −$7
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -5.3% -14.3% 79% 26% -14.2%
≤30d 55 -8.7% -17.4% 76% 25% -29.2%
≤90d 107 -4.5% -13.6% 76% 23% -9.5%
all 107 -4.5% -13.6% 76% 23% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 23% -9.5%
10% -21.9% 13% -18.1%
15% -29.4% 8% -26.0%
20% -36.3% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$17 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses81 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)107 / 107
History coverage66d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 107 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 309 history records