Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:09:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D3 0xd36a…8660 world 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$643 (-46%) realized −$643 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$599
sports 43% −$47
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +134.0% +111.7% 100% 100% +111.7%
≤90d 6 -23.8% -31.1% 50% 33% -54.3%
all 6 -23.8% -31.1% 50% 33% -54.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 33% -54.3%
10% -37.7% 17% -58.6%
15% -43.7% 17% -62.6%
20% -49.2% 17% -66.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$285 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$643
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage68d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $128 +$172 +134%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $100 +$10 +10%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 09 $253 −$248 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $221 +$29 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 27 $301 −$301 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $307 −$307 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $32 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $66 7d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $128 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY No 91¢ $100 34d
Hurricanes vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 37¢ $253 44d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 88¢ $221 46d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 11¢ $301 55d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $307 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.74 · official $97.74 (match) · 19 history records