Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:28:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd369…00e4 crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$88 (+9%) realized +$69 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%25W / 26L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$17
other 45% +$109
sports 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +5.1% -4.9% 49% 47% +1.7%
≤30d 51 +5.1% -4.9% 49% 47% +1.7%
≤90d 51 +5.1% -4.9% 49% 47% +1.7%
all 51 +5.1% -4.9% 49% 47% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 47% +1.7%
10% -14.0% 43% -8.1%
15% -22.3% 43% -16.9%
20% -29.9% 35% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses25 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage5d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 72¢ $55 $74 +$19 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$28 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$14 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$24 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$13 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$15 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$24 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$15 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$13 +420%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$9 +114%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $62 +$24 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$33 +319%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$21 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $64 −$3 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $47 +$53 +112%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.20 · official $74.20 (match) · 94 history records