Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd366…0184 crypto 574 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$380 (-1%) realized −$320 · open −$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate60%337W / 226L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$610now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$195
7 days−$206
14 days−$365
30 days−$1,303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$715
other 5% −$243
weather 2% −$20
sports 1% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 -13.1% -21.3% 58% 45% -13.6%
≤30d 402 -17.4% -25.3% 55% 39% -19.0%
≤90d 563 -11.5% -19.9% 60% 42% -12.7%
all 563 -11.5% -19.9% 60% 42% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 42% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 27% -21.0%
15% -34.6% 17% -28.7%
20% -41.0% 10% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$28 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$610
Realized−$320
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses337 / 226
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions11
Markets (closed)563 / 574
History coverage35d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 563 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $100 $72 −$28 (-28%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+32%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 133 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$39 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $37 −$23 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$16 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$20 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $103 −$39 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$22 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$32 +124%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $31 −$25 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$33 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $36 +$11 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 35m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $8 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $12 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $15 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $610.19 · official $610.19 (match) · 1311 history records