Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:54:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd362…bc20 world 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 271d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%17W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$4
other 27% +$1
sports 10% −$8
politics 10% $0
tech 7% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.5% -7.3% 71% 14% -8.9%
≤30d 14 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 7% -8.4%
≤90d 14 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 7% -8.4%
all 47 -0.2% -9.7% 36% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses17 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage271d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $34 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $6 +$1 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $35 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $64 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $69 +$2 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 25 $21 −$8 -37%
Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th Dec 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Dec 17 $9 $0 +2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Dec 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $64 $0 -0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the 2025 Ryder Cup end in a tie? Oct 01 $7 $0 +2%
US bank failure by September 30? Sep 30 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Taylor Swift" during September? Sep 30 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $21 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 93¢ $35 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $35 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $34 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $34 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $15 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $15 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $39 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $39 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $38 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $7 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 16¢ $6 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 16¢ $0 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $34 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $34 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $6 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $28 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $22 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $19 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $35 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records